Burrows, counselor to the national intelligence council, discusses the global trends 2030. What will our future world be like in the next fifteen to twenty years. Global trends 2025 is the fourth installment in the national intelligence council led effort to identify key drivers and developments likely to shape world events a decade or more in the future. The nics companion report to global trends 2030, entitled le menu, provides the cliffs notes description of. This report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories during the next 1520 years. This report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories over the next 15 years. Richard cincotta richard cincotta is the demographerinresidence at the stimson center in washington, dc, a consultant on political demography at the woodrow wilson centers environmental change and security project, and a contributor to the national intelligence councils strategic foresight efforts. As with the nics previous global trends reports, we do not seek to predict the futurewhich would be an impossible featbut instead provide a framework for thinking about possible futures and their. As with the nics previous global trends reports,we contend that the megatrends are interacting we do not seek to predict the futurean impossiblewith six variables or gamechangers that will featbut instead provide a framework for thinkingdetermine what kind of transformed world we will. This year, principal author mathew burrows and his colleagues focus on a series of plausible. Alternative worlds we looked at the uncertain but potentially worrisome gini out of the bottle scenario, the third scenario presented in the national intelligence councils nic comprehensive analysis.
As with the nics national intelligence council previous global trends reports, we. National intelligence council the national intelligence council nic is best known as the organization that produces national intelligence estimates, which are intelligence communitywide forecasts of issues and challenges facing the security of the united states. Take the time to look over the fifth installment in the national intelligence councils nic series of reports aimed at providing a framework for thinking about the future entitled global trends 2030. We are at a critical juncture in human history, which could lead to widely contrasting futures, writes the chairman of the national intelligence council nic christopher kojm in the councils latest forwardlooking quadrennial report, global trends 2030. The nic reports to the director of national intelligence in his capacity as head of the. As the title of the national intelligence councils nic capstone publication suggests, this look at possible alternative worlds is the essence of the study. Alternative worlds, the fifth installment of a series that aims to provide a framework for thinking about future policy planning. The article acknowledges some of the strengths of the nic report such as its use of. Use features like bookmarks, note taking and highlighting while reading global trends 2030.
As with previous editions, we hope that this report will stimulate strategic thinking by. For coverage of the atlantic council global trends event. The highlevel conference will convene more than 150 participants from the policymaking, business, media, and technology communities in the united states and from around the world in an unprecedented gathering to discuss. Alternative worlds is the fifth installment in the national intelligence councils series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about the future. The national intelligence councils nic global trends report engages expertise from outside government on factors of such as globalization, demography and the environment, producing a forwardlooking document to aid policymakers in their long term planning on key issues of worldwide. Alternative worlds open pdf 0 b this report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories during the next 1520 years. Global trends 2030 is intended to stimulate thinking about the ra. The national intelligence councils nic justreleased global trends 2030. Empirical data elucidates that the worlds population is aggregating in cities at an alarming rate. As with the nics previous global trends reports, we do not seek to. Summaries of the us, eu, russia, and nato global trends 2030 reports. This report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global.
On monday december 10, 2012 the office of the director of national intelligence. The following report was released december 10, 2012 by the national intelligence council a condensed version of the report is also available 1. Share of global middleclass consumption, 20002050 percent others eu us japan other asia india china 1990 to 2010 2010 to 2030 projected global trends 2030. The atlantic councils brent scowcroft center on international security will host a twoday conference launching the us national intelligence council s nic global trends 2030. This post will examine another more nuanced scenario, nonstate world, which represents yet another uncertain scenario. At the end of 2012, the us national intelligence council nic released global trends 2030. On monday december 10, 2012 the office of the director of national intelligence released the national intelligence councils nic latest global trends report, global trends 2030. United states national intelligence council us nic.
Alternative worlds a publication of the national intelligence council december 2012 nic 2012001. Alternative worlds report and exploring its consequences for u. A cocreative project vision 2030 for tigre, argentina. In this project, first we envisioned social values and experiences the city of tigre should provide for its citizens, and then by backcasting we identified crucial issues, creating a plan to achieve the vision for 2030 as proposed through necs solutions. Burrows, counselor, us national intelligence council. As with the nics previous global trends reports, we do not seek to predict the. Combat in urban areas, by maj ron hernandez, 43 pages. Alternative worlds is a draft report being prepared by the us national intelligence council to be released after the presidential election, in december 2012. Alternative worlds report identifies key metatrends that will shape the future international system, including the. National intelligence council releases global trends 2030. Mathew burrows counselor and director, analysis and production staff, national intelligence council global trends 2030. Global trends 2030 office of the director of national intelligence.
Of all possible future worlds is a book that asks, what will our world be like in the next fifteen to twenty years. Download defensio fidei nic n pdf ebook defensio fidei nic n defensio fidei nic n ebook author by george bull defensio. Global trends to 2035 geopolitics and international power this study considers eight economic, societal, and political global trends that will shape the world to 2035, namely an ageing population, fragile globalisation, a technological revolution, climate change, shifting power. Global trends is the intelligence communitys major assessment of the forces and choices shaping the world over the next two decades. The global trends project engages expertise from outside government on factors of such as globalization, demography and the. Overview of the national intelligence council report on. Workshop on information technology in africa, may 2002 3 mb pdf file. Of nat or io ct re na f the di l in llige te eo ic n f ce ofdear reader. Alternative worlds is the fifth installment in the national intelligencecouncil s series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about the future. Alternative worlds report overview and blog post series. In 1950, twentynine percent of the worlds population lived in urban areas. But the middle easts trajectory will depend on its political landscape. Slaughter1 abstract the article acknowledges some of the strengths of the nic report such as its use of scenarios. The nic global trends project involves extensive research and consultations with people inside the us government and around the world.
Alternative worlds report released december 10, 2012 by the national intelligence council. The 2030 pdf is broken, can you up again the archive thanks. Alternative worlds, a publication of the national intelligence council nic. Both the product and the process used to produce it benefited from lessons learned in previous iterations. It also critiques it on grounds that include failing to learn from feedback on the 2005 report, over.
Alternative worlds report and exploring its consequences for us strategy moving forward. Alternative worlds is the fifth installment in the national intelligence. Unique among intelligence products of this depth and stature, the national intelligence councils quadrennial global trends report is. Alternative worlds is the fifth installment in the national intelligence councils series aimed at providing a framework for. I found global trends 2030 to be sometimes a disturbing but always a fascinating read. A more fragmented international system in which existing forms of cooperation are no longer seen as advantageous to many of the key global players would also increase the potential for competition and even great power conflict. Global trends 2030 reports of all possible future worlds. Alternative worlds free ebook download as pdf file. A few weeks back, on one of my many flights, i had an opportunity to read global trends 2030. What fate for liberal order in a postwestern world. As with the nics previous global trends reports, we do not seek to predict the futurewhich would be an impossible featbut instead. It describes the megatrends, gamechangers, and four potential worlds that we will likely face. The national intelligence council nic, the forwardlooking think tank of the u. Alternative worlds global trends 2030 is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories over the next 15 years.
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